PREDICTION MARKETS
Primary source for weird YES/NO markets. Planned connectors include major prediction-market feeds where technically and legally available.
POLYMARKET / KALSHI-STYLE FEEDS • PLANNEDDick's Weekly Prediction-Market Freak Show
FUGAZI OF THE WEEK.
The strangest market Dick can find that still has enough real information to handicap without completely making shit up.
THE WEEKLY MARKET FREAK
Current Fugazi
NOT POSTED YET.
Dick is scouting prediction markets for something sufficiently ridiculous and sufficiently measurable.
MARKET QUESTIONWaiting for Week 1
PLATFORMPrediction market
YES / NO PRICE—
DICK FAIR PROB.—
EDGE—
LIQUIDITY / VOLUME—
RESOLVES—
STAKEFUN MONEY ONLY
FUGAZI RECORD0–0
NET UNITS+0.0
ROI0.0%
“What the fuck are we betting on?”
Fugazi Radar
WHERE DOES DICK FIND THIS SHIT?
Fugazi is a market, not a sport. It can come from sports, weather, culture, entertainment, or anything else with a clear objective resolution.
SPORTSBOOK EXOTICS
Novelty props, obscure sports and unusual derivatives when the current odds provider exposes them.
THE ODDS API + FUTURE PROP FEEDSWEATHER & EVENTS
Weather, measurable event outcomes and other objective data can provide context or settlement inputs.
WEATHER / EVENT DATA CONNECTOR • PLANNEDOne Official Pick
FUGAZI OF THE WEEK
Dick publishes one official weird market at a time. That is the pick that counts in the Fugazi record.
The Shortlist
THE FUGAZI BOARD
Three to five candidates can sit on the radar before Dick chooses the official one. Candidates do not count toward the record.
CANDIDATE AWAITING FOR FEEDPrediction market
CANDIDATE BWAITING FOR FEEDWeird sports/exotic
CANDIDATE CWAITING FOR FEEDWeather/event
Fugazi Hunting Grounds
WEIRD ENOUGH TO BE FUN.
REAL ENOUGH TO MODEL.
01
Odd Sports
Competitive eating, obscure races, novelty props and other athletic nonsense where actual data exists.
02
Weather & Events
Temperature thresholds, launches, openings, records and other objective events with clear settlement rules.
03
Culture & Entertainment
Release dates, awards, public events and measurable outcomes — when the information is good enough to handicap.
04
Pure Fugazi
The market that makes the room laugh first and ask for Dick's probability second.
The Rules
DICK DOESN'T BET EVERY WEIRD THING.
Clear Resolution
The market has to have objective settlement language. If nobody can explain how it resolves, Dick walks.
Real Information
Dick needs enough evidence to estimate a probability. “It would be funny” is not a model input.
Small Stakes
Fugazi lives in the Fun bucket. It never gets to raid the Core bankroll because the market is hilarious.