Win probability
A model estimate, not a guarantee. A 60% estimate still leaves a 40% chance of the other outcome.
DICK’S QUANTITATIVE BACK ROOM
Milkins Money Lab
GOT A THEORY? PUT IT TO WORK.
Pick the game. Tune your assumptions. Let Dick cook.
OUR DICK Protected baselineYOUR DICK Your What-if?
HOW IT WORKS Guided mode + results+
First time? Take the controls.A guided tour explains each adjustable stat, one at a time.
THE SHORT VERSION
Pick a game. Run the baseline. Then challenge it.
- 01
Set the baseline
Choose a sport and game. Sign in if required, then run with the default assumptions.
- 02
Test your read
Change one assumption and run again. Your Dick changes; Our Dick stays locked.
- 03
Check the evidence
Compare outputs, sources and timestamps. Keep the receipt. Missing data is not a signal.
Our Dick vs. Your Dick
Our Dick is the protected baseline. Your Dick shows what changes under your assumptions. Movement is the difference between them.
Market verdict
A model result alone does not establish value at a price. Check the source and age. TEST or DEMO quotes are fictional; unavailable means there is no verified comparison.
Input robustness
Dick Hardness is a provisional measure of input robustness. It is not win probability, model accuracy, or a reason to increase a stake.
PASS or unavailable
PASS is a valid outcome. Do not change inputs to force a preferred answer. If output is unavailable, check sport status, game selection and sign-in.
Keep your reasoning
Record why you changed an assumption. Reset to check the baseline, and keep the receipt for later review.
- 1CHOOSE GAME
- 2ADJUST ASSUMPTIONS
- 3RUN THE GAME
- 4UNDERSTAND THE RESULT
01 / CHOOSE YOUR GAME
CHANGE SPORT
SPORTNFLCAPABILITY CHECKING
TIMEFRAME, THEN GAME ↓
TIMEFRAME
GAMEGAME UNAVAILABLE
DATE & TIMEUNAVAILABLE
MARKETUNAVAILABLENo verified market snapshot loaded.
WHAT CAN I COMPARE? Supported outputs + missing evidence+
Our Dick vs. your scenario
NCAA Basketball and NFL support separate baseline and scenario outputs. Compare only the fields returned for the selected game and run. MLB currently supports an experimental synthetic Our Dick test; a baseball scenario result is unavailable.
Consigliere and model versions
Consigliere is a model profile name. The returned engine version and receipt identify the run. A profile label alone does not prove a new model was released or validated.
Historical model comparison
Archived cross-version comparison is unavailable until actual runnable snapshots and their matching game, input and prediction receipts are supplied. The current selector does not create historical results.
Advanced markets
First-scorer, period-outcome and joint player-prop probabilities are unavailable. They require sport-specific outputs and matching market identities, prices and timestamps; a full-game result cannot fill those gaps.
Value and performance
Market quotes stay downstream of the protected model. A quote or synthetic example does not establish validated betting edge, calibration, ROI or CLV. Missing probabilities or evaluation evidence remain unavailable.
Reasoning and receipts
Explanations interpret supplied outputs. They do not replace Our Dick, activate an engine, or create a prediction receipt. Check each result's source, timestamp and version before comparing.
02 / ADJUST YOUR ASSUMPTIONS
YOUR DICK • OUR DICK STAYS LOCKEDChoose BOTH or a team to unlock its slider. 100% is Dick’s baseline; changes affect only Your Dick. Test one idea at a time.
ALL SLIDERSCHECKING
No scenario changes applied.
BACK TO RUN THE GAME03 / RUN THE GAME
BACK TO RUN THE GAME ↑YOUR READ STARTS HERE.
Choose a game above. Keep the baseline or adjust the sliders, then run the game.
RUN REQUIRED
No connected result has been returned.
Verified downstream market required.
Our Dick output required.
WIN PROBABILITYSELECTED TEAM
OUR DICKLOCKED OUTPUT
- LINE
- —
- TOTAL
- —
- WIN
- —
YOUR DICKSCENARIO OUTPUT
- LINE
- —
- TOTAL
- —
- WIN
- —
MOVEMENT—SCENARIO VS OUR DICK
MARKET—UNAVAILABLE
DICK HARDNESS
—/ 100Input robustness
Provisional input robustness. Not win probability or a betting recommendation.
WHY
WAITING FOR RESULTNo explanation is available until the connected product returns a current result.
RECEIPT
RESULT RECORD- Action
- —
- Market
- UNAVAILABLE
- Model
- UNAVAILABLE
- Receipt ID
- NOT RECORDED
- Observed
- UNAVAILABLE
PLAYERS TO WATCH
DICK ENHANCEMENTSPlayer-level Quant output is unavailable for this result.
DETAILS
TECHNICAL RECORD- Engine
- UNAVAILABLE
- Version
- UNAVAILABLE
- Market
- UNAVAILABLE
- Provenance
- UNAVAILABLE
- State
- RUN REQUIRED
FULL ANALYSIS & RECEIPTS
MONEY LAB MODEBETTING INTELLIGENCEGame outcomes, market context and immutable model receipts.
OPEN FANTASY GAME DAY →
PLAYER-ORIENTED WORKSPACESame game state. Different decision.
Fantasy mode preserves your selected sport, profile, game and tuned assumptions. Player distributions activate only where the protected sport engine and validated player inputs support them.
NFLROLE / USAGE BETANCAABENCH BOSS DEMOOTHER SPORTSREADINESS ONLY
FREE BETA • ALL USERS
NFL BETA.
PREGAME MODELINGSport-specific quantitative engine will plug into the same Money Lab workflow.
LIVE LINESOdds board is already multi-sport; beta models will sit on top of those prices.
PROPS + ACTIVE PLAYERSPlanned player-state and prop-line integration follows the same player-ID mapping layer.
WEATHERWeather factor activates for outdoor fixtures instead of showing indoor nonsense.
THE LEDGERFootball bets will use the same saved-action, live probability and receipt system.
BETA ACCESSFree to every signed-in account for this season.
MODEL FAMILYCOMING ONLINEBeta outputs stay disabled until a real sport engine is connected. No fake projections.
DICK'S QUANTITATIVE BACK ROOMMILKINS
MILKINS
MONEY LAB
Our Dick stays locked. Your scenario runs separately.
DICK HARDNESS
NUMBERS DON'T LIE.
PEOPLE DO.
PEOPLE DO.
ENGINE STATUSMM27PRODUCTION— Dick
LIVE • SAME GAME, NEW STATE
NO LIVE GAME SELECTEDTHE GAME ROOM.
Dick will show the real score and clock when the selected canonical game is live.
No live probability appears until a verified live model snapshot exists. Pregame Our Dick remains untouched.
Your member-scoped bets and tracked players remain in The Ledger.
SEE WHAT WE'RE SWEATING →LOADING OUR DICK…
MAKE YOUR CHANGESTHEN RUN YOUR DICK
MARKET UNAVAILABLE
OUR DICK'S BEST BETLOADING BASELINE…YOUR DICK'S BEST BETRUN YOUR SIMULATION
CHOOSE A SPORT.
MILKINS MONEY LAB • SAME WORKFLOW, SPORT-SPECIFIC MATH
GAME & SCENARIO SETUP.
01MODEL→02STYLE→03GAME→04MODE→05TUNE→06RUN
FREE BETA • ALL SIGNED-IN USERS
NFL MONEY LAB.
Run the protected Production alpha untouched, then apply football-specific Lab assumptions to a separate copy. Our Dick and Your Dick never overwrite each other.
PRIVATE ENGINENFL-v0.1.1-alphaFORWARD-TEST BETA • UNVALIDATED
01CHOOSE GAME
→02TUNE FOOTBALL
→03RUN OUR DICK + YOUR DICK
READINESSPREVIEWING…—
MATCHUP——
BEST SPREAD——
BEST ML——
BEST TOTAL——
STEP 2 • CONNECTED PRODUCTION INPUTS
BUILD THE FOOTBALL SCENARIO.
Pick BOTH or one team. Switching teams restores that team’s saved value. Center is always Dick’s Pick.
AWAY0HOME0GAME0
CORE FOOTBALL CONTROLS
FREE BETA CONTROLS.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
How strongly the selected quarterback’s efficiency, completion quality, sacks, turnovers, scrambling and explosive passing influence the Lab run.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Amplifies or reduces the impact of the selected team’s current QB availability uncertainty.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected team’s EPA-style and success-rate deviation from league neutral.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected team’s defensive efficiency and opponent-success suppression.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales big-play creation and big-play prevention for the selected team.
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales red-zone touchdown execution and red-zone defense.
CLEARERDICK'S PICKHARSHER
GAME LEVEL
Amplifies or reduces the currently assembled temperature, wind and precipitation scenario. Outside the forecast window, the input remains explicitly pending.
2026 FOOTBALL BETA • SHARP CONTROLS
EVERY SLIDER IS OPEN THIS SEASON.
For the 2026 football beta, every signed-in user gets the full connected control board so we can collect better scenario evidence.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Amplifies or reduces current non-QB offensive personnel availability and limitation effects.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for the selected QB's current turnover-rate deviation from league neutral.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for the selected QB's current sack-rate deviation from league neutral.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected quarterback's current scrambling-value profile.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected offense's pass-protection strength without also changing defensive pressure.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected defense's pressure-rate profile without also changing offensive protection.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected offense's run-blocking strength.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected defense's run-stopping strength.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for offensive red-zone touchdown conversion.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for defensive red-zone touchdown prevention.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for offensive explosive-play creation.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Precision control for explosive plays allowed by the defense.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected team's current field-goal accuracy profile.
2026 BETA
LESSDICK'S PICKMORE
Scales the selected team's current return-value profile.
WHY ARE SOME FOOTBALL FACTORS NOT SLIDERS YET?
Production v0.1.1 applies a fixed home-field term. Correct neutral-site gating exists only in the private v0.2 Challenger.
Production v0.1.1 exposes these inputs but the calibration runner shows no current output sensitivity.
Implemented in the private Challenger research track; disconnected in current Production.
Implemented behind a Challenger research flag; current Production does not use punt net.
Exposed by Production but not blended into prediction strength yet.
Position/unit-specific defensive injury cascades are a Challenger research item, not current Production.
STEP 3
RUN OUR DICK + YOUR DICK.
Sign in, choose a ready game, and run both branches with the same seed.
IMMUTABLE BETA RECEIPT
—
HOME WIN —MARGIN —TOTAL —TRUST —
→
HOME WIN —MARGIN —TOTAL —DELTA —
NO AUTOMATIC BET.These outputs are beta forward-test evidence. Market context is shown separately and never alters Our Dick.
MLB v0.2.1 • EXPERIMENTAL / WEBSITE TESTING
MLB ENGINE TEST.
MilkinsBaseball-Consigliere runs through the private MLB_ENGINE service binding. The authorized synthetic fixture proves the protected path without pretending to be a current MLB game.
PRIVATE ENGINECHECKING…MilkinsBaseball-Consigliere-v0.2.1-experimental
The protected raw market-blind result stays immutable.
The scenario branch remains unavailable until an approved baseball contract exists.
Market comparison happens downstream and stays separate.
Version, seed, hashes and completed simulations are returned.
PROTECTED ENGINE SMOKE TEST
RUN THE VERIFIED EXAMPLE.
EXPERIMENTAL / TEST DATA • SYNTHETIC FIXTURE • NOT A LIVE MLB GAME OR BET.
OUR DICK SCORE—
HOME WIN—
MODELED TOTAL—
TRUST / HARDNESSNOT MODELED
PLAYER PROJECTIONSNOT MODELED
—
—
—
—
NFL MONEY LAB
FACTOR
LEFTReduce the selected factor’s influence.
CENTERDick’s locked Production input.
RIGHTAmplify the selected factor’s influence.
PRODUCTION • MM27
NCAA BASKETBALL MONEY LAB.
Same workflow as football: choose the engine/profile and game, tune basketball-only inputs, then compare the locked Our Dick branch with Your Dick branch.
PRIVATE ENGINEMM27OUR DICK + YOUR DICK ISOLATED
01ENGINE + STYLE
→02CHOOSE GAME
→03TUNE BASKETBALL
→04RUN OUR DICK + YOUR DICK
STEP 3 • SPORT-SPECIFIC VARIABLES
BUILD THE BASKETBALL SCENARIO.
Pick both teams or one team. The center position is always Dick's Pick.
STEP 4
RUN OUR DICK + YOUR DICK.
MM27 freezes the Our Dick branch first. Your scenario is stored separately.
COOKING THE GRAVYSTARTS ONLY WHEN YOU PRESS RUN
01STEP 1SET THE TABLE
→
02STEP 2BUILD THE SCENARIO
→
03STEP 3RUN THE GAME
DICK'S QUANTITATIVE BACK ROOM
MILKINS
MONEY LAB
One protected engine. Six profiles. Your scenario.
MM27 PROTECTED
DICK'S PICK LOCKED
20,000 SIMS
PROFILE
CONSIGLIERE
READY
01STEP 1SET THE TABLEChoose the game and MM27 profile.
MODEL PROFILETHE CONSIGLIERE
VERSION
v1.0CONS-v0.1.0-alpha
Our private flagship / best available model
Continuously updatedPrivate Production / Official
Profile Version
PUBLIC VERSIONv1.0
INTERNAL ID—
STATUSCURRENT
ROLE
—
UPDATE POLICY
—
LIFECYCLE
—
SELECTED MODEL
The Consigliere
Official • CONS-v0.1.0-alpha
MARKET SPREADKAN -2.5
MARKET TOTAL149.5
VENUEKansas
MARKET—Total —
ACCESSA GUY WE KNOW
STEP 2 • TUNE THE MONEY
MM27 MODEL FAMILY
MM27 MODEL PROFILES.
REAL EVENT BRIDGE
LIVE MODELING STATUS.
GAME FEEDPREGAME / MARKET ONLY
MODELNFL PREGAME READY
LIVE SCORE/PLAY-BY-PLAYCONNECTOR PENDING
WATCHLIST0 EVENTS
Current beta can attach the pregame model and market to a canonical event. It will not fabricate live win probability until a verified score/clock/play-by-play connector is online.
BAYLOR51
2ND HALF11:42Houston ball
HOUSTON57
DEMO MODEL WIN PROB.74%
DEMO FAIR SPREADHouston -5.1
DEMO FAIR TOTAL139.8
SIMULATED MARKETHouston -3.5
DEMO MODEL CONVICTION
Simulated decision logic preview
Demo model lineSimulated market line
TIPHALFTIMENOWFINAL
PACE VS PREGAME-4.2 poss.Slower than expected
3PT VARIANCEBaylor +8%Potential regression
FOUL PRESSUREHouston 7–5Watch bonus timing
TIMEOUTS3 / 2Houston edge late
REAL NFL PLAYER STATE
ROLE BOARD.
Current depth, availability and usage shares from the canonical NFL pipeline. Fantasy point distributions remain disabled until player-level stat simulation is calibrated.
Choose an NFL game to inspect real player roles.
YOUR TEAMThe Sunday GravyPPR scoring • 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / FLEX
CURRENT LINEUP127.4projected pts
→
DICK'S LINEUP136.8projected pts
POINTS FOUND+9.4on your bench
| Player | Pos | Matchup | Proj. | Floor | Ceiling | Dick Says |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. DanielsQB1 | QB | vs DAL | 24.8 | 18.2 | 31.6 | START |
| B. HallRB1 | RB | @ MIA | 19.7 | 12.5 | 27.9 | START |
| J. GibbsRB2 | RB | vs GB | 18.9 | 11.7 | 28.5 | START |
| A. St. BrownWR1 | WR | vs GB | 20.4 | 13.1 | 28.8 | START |
| T. McLaurinBENCH | WR | vs DAL | 17.6 | 10.3 | 25.4 | FLEX ↑ |
| D. SmithFLEX NOW | WR | @ DEN | 11.2 | 7.8 | 18.9 | BENCH ↓ |
| K. PittsTE | TE | vs TB | 10.6 | 5.2 | 17.8 | WATCH |
Higher target share and a friendlier projected game script adds 6.4 expected points.
Wide outcome range. Keep him active only if late-week role signals stay stable.
Highest ceiling on the roster because rushing equity protects the floor.
02STEP 2
BUILD YOUR SCENARIO.
Choose the factor, choose the team, move the number.
SCENARIODICK'S PICK
AWAY CHANGES0
HOME CHANGES0
GAME CHANGES0
CENTER IS ALWAYS DICK’S PICK.
Step 3
COMPLETED RUN BREAKDOWN
OUR DICK VS. YOUR DICK.
Our Dick stays locked. Your sliders create a separate scenario result.
NO RESULT YETRun the selected review fixture
SPORT / GAMENCAA BASKETBALL • SELECT A GAME
MODEL / STYLEMM27 • SELECT A STYLE
RECEIPT / SEEDRUN REQUIRED
COMPLETED RUN • MARKET DECISION
RUN REQUIREDBEST BET MATH.
American-odds break-even math is transparent. Fair probability, edge and EV appear only when the selected market has a model-supported probability. PASS is a valid decision.
MODEL—
PUBLIC VERSION—
PROFILE ID—
VERSION STATUSCURRENT
OUR DICKLOCKED
———
BAYLORHOUSTON
WIN PROB.Awaiting run
FAIR SPREAD—
FAIR TOTAL—
🔒 Our Dick cannot be changed by the sliders.
YOUR DICK • MONEY LABSCENARIO
———
BAYLORHOUSTON
WIN PROB.Awaiting run
LAB SPREAD—
LAB TOTAL—
OUR DICK → YOUR DICK MOVEMENTNo material change
SCENARIO VERDICTRUN THE GAME TO COMPARE
DICK HARDNESS — MODEL READINESS / INPUT STRENGTH —NOT WIN PROBABILITY
Move the sliders and Dick will tell you which assumptions changed the game.
FULL BREAKDOWN • PLAYER LAYER
PLAYER SHEET.
Our Dick input-baseline minutes and box-score output from the player data currently loaded for this fixture.
IMPORTANT
This is the current Our Dick input baseline, not a live player-prop recommendation feed. A separate Your Dick player branch is shown only when the engine supplies one; it is not currently available. Suggested player bets turn on only when actual sportsbook prop lines are connected.
PLAYER BET SCAN
WAITING FOR PROP LINES
Once player prop prices are connected, Dick will compare the projection to the best available line and surface only material edges.
MM27 Model Directory
The Consigliere
STYLE
RISK
BET FREQUENCY
BEST FOR
PROFILE
ENGINEMM27-v0.5.0-alpha
Role descriptions explain how each profile is designed to behave. Historical performance remains labeled unvalidated until the backtest/live sample is actually loaded and graded.
MILKINS MONEY LAB Help
What the fuck does this mean?
MM27_C COMPLETE
The Consigliere
DICK HAS SPOKEN.
AWAY—
—
HOME—
WIN PROBABILITY—
DICK'S FAIR LINE—
PROJECTED TOTAL—
DICK HARDNESSMODEL / INPUT ROBUSTNESS—
MARKET VERDICT
—
YOUR LAB VS. OUR DICK
—
Engine/version receipt
MILKINS MONEY LAB
Factor
LEFT
DICK'S PICK
RIGHT
Milkins Money Lab
WHAT MAKES OUR DICK HARD?
Dick Hardness measures model and input robustness. It describes the strength of the available inputs and modeling foundation. It is separate from win probability, expected value, and the downstream market verdict.
85–100HIGH
Lineups, injuries, roles, stats and sample quality are strong. Normal model exposure can be considered.
70–84MEDIUM
Useful model read, but meaningful uncertainty remains. Size down or demand more edge.
<70LOW
Noisy or incomplete inputs. Wider outcome range; caution or pass.
WHAT THE CURRENT PROVISIONAL FORMULA ACTUALLY USES
Engine-supplied confidence / input strengthScenario distance from Dick's baselineNumber and magnitude of scenario changesA one-way scenario caution penalty that can lower, never raise, Your Dick Hardness
Our Dick Hardness is the confidence/robustness attached to the locked Milkins baseline. Your Dick Hardness begins with that engine confidence and may decrease when your scenario moves farther from the baseline—even when an extreme scenario appears to create a larger edge. Model edge, expected value, uncertainty width, and calibration evidence are not claimed as formula inputs unless a protected engine response explicitly supplies and supports them. No private coefficients are exposed.
MM27 Version Vault
MODEL ARCHIVE.
This archive shows supplied profile-version metadata. Historical replay and cross-version comparison are unavailable until runnable archived snapshots and matching game, input and prediction receipts are supplied. Selecting a version does not create historical results or change an existing receipt.
SELECTED PROFILE
—
—
THE RULE
We do not invent history. A version appears here only after it actually existed and was superseded by a later explicit profile version.